Three thoughts for today:
We have come full circle with Indonesia.
Biden may have just lost himself the election by throwing Israel partially under the bus, and in the process endangering our hostages
Iran remains the nuclear elephant on the table.
More below. Thanks for muddling through this with me.
1. Today I’m thinking we have come full circle. This war started six months ago, in large part, because Israel was on the brink of a peace treaty with Saudi Arabia. Iran couldn’t allow an anti-Iranian alliance including Israel to form, so they used the Palestinians as their (Iran’s) expendable collateral, and plunged us into war via their proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Now we have come full circle: It is no coincidence that, just as we are on the brink of war directly with Iran, the U.S. has announced a normalization deal with the most populous Moslem country in the world with a full 13% of the world’s Moslems, Indonesia. (In return, Indonesia gets membership in the OECD.) This may have been an attempt at a middle finger to Iran to persuade them to step down - see, Iran, you can’t stop the Moslem world from normalizing with Israel - but it may also convince Iran that now is the time to strike Israel directly, before such normalization continues.
(How ironic is it that half of the Arab world now has their fingers crossed that Israel will pull them out of this mess; but that it is the US and Europe (who in five years will be overrun with their own Moslem problem: The Palestinians will have used democratic institutions to bring down democracy) and will only then understand what they have wrought, who (ie, lefties and friends) are so smugly now marching against Israel to satisfy their antisemitism.)
2. President Biden, mired in domestic politics, may have just lost himself the election. It’s months until November and anything could happen, but the White House has let their dislike for PM Netanyahu (more than 70% of Israel also thinks he should resign) and their worry about pro-Palestinian electoral threats in swing states, to lead them to threaten to stop critical weapons shipments to Israel, force Israel to pull out of Gaza, and demand a six-week humanitarian ceasefire not tied to hostage return.
Any good negotiator knows you don’t show your cards and you don’t offer freebies. Now that Hamas has half of what it wanted, it has little incentive to release hostages. This is not entirely Biden’s fault - Netanyahu is also to blame for his fumbling of the hostage negotiations - but if America had held strong on tying both concessions and perks to hostage release, we would have our hostages home. Now Hamas is delaying discussions - because if the U.S. can pressure Israel into a multi-week pause, Hamas can re-trench and recoup much of their stranglehold on Gaza, despite their significant losses.
And in the end, I predict it won’t help Biden with the election anyway. Unless there’s an unanticipated black swan event to shake up this election (which given the age of both presidential candidates, the legal cases pending, and even the upsurge in avian flu, is likely), I’m guessing those pro-Palestinian swing states (although they should know that voting Trump won’t help their cause) will sit out the election entirely, passing a de facto victory to Trump.
And meantime, ironically, the Jews are also likely to stay home from the polls. We are increasingly skittish about antisemitism; some of us are newly concerned about the security of Israel. Despite Jews’ overwhelming traditional Democratic voting patterns (not counting the 10% of America’s Jews who are Orthodox, who tend to vote Republican), unless Biden redeems himself by supporting Israel strongly during the upcoming war with Lebanon/Iran, although they won’t be able to bring themselves to vote Trump, may, like their Moslem brethren, this time just stay home from the polls.
(Also, by kowtowing to the Hamas sympathizers, including those chanting “Death to America!”, the Democrats are granting legitimacy to the pro-terrorist position. Is that really the alliance they want?)
So all this pacifying of the pro-Palestinian fringe is going to greatly improve the odds of a Trump presidency.
After that, of course, despite having seen the Moslems and Jews exhibit identical behavior, the left wing will condemn American Jews for not having supported Biden, and will simultaneously condemn Biden’s advisors for having let the Gaza issue “justifiably” determine Palestinian voting patterns. C’est la vie.
And all this means it is less likely Israel will successfully get our hostages back - or we will get fewer returned than we would have without US interference.
Because why buy a cow if you can get the milk for free?
One final point about hostages, of which we still supposedly have 133 in captivity. The latest deal (that Hamas has already rejected), among other demands, called for a full pull-out by Israel and 900 terrorists released from prison. In return, israel was asking for 40 ‘humanitarian’ hostages - women, children, injured.
Hamas can’t do that trade, it appears. There aren’t 40 hostages alive in that category.
There aren’t 40 hostages alive in that category.
So if the US has blown our ability to negotiate, I’m hoping they have some other sort of rabbit up their sleeve. Because for the fewer than forty hostages, we are running out of time.
3. Finally, Iran.
If I were Taiwan or Europe, I would be worried that the US is so quick to throw allies like Israel (and Ukraine, for financial reasons - Europe should be chipping in more on this one) under the bus.
And if I were Iran, I would see this as a narrow window of possibility for a dramatic gamble to accomplish their goals. After all, either a second-term Biden or a Trump presidency will be less favorable to Iran than the current anti-Israel world sentiment and a rickety Biden.
Iran is sword-rattling big time. Khamenei announced that “the evil regime (that’s us) made a mistake and must be punished.”
And Israel has responded that if Iran attacks from Iranian territory, Israel will respond by attacking Iran directly. The words, “including Iranian nuclear sites” are implicit.
So Israel is preparing for any eventuality. The U.S. sent Gen. Michael Kurilla, head of the US Central Command, here to consult with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. (Proving Biden hasn’t abandoned us completely - Kurilla is big guns.) Municipalities have issued advisories on stocking food and water, and have opened shelters. People are wondering about generators. The army is on full alert. Parents throughout Israel received messages telling them to prepare their children for remote learning following the Passover vacation. (This may be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back.)
Passover starts next Monday night.
What happens between now and then is anyone’s guess.
You go Fern I just love how you call em exactly the way I see em.
Fern i have not read all your post but get the gist of it ! Don’t Blame President Biden when in reality it’s Trumps doing he is the one who
Sent His No account Son In Law Jarred to iisreal with Jarred haveing No authority to do
Anything ! He railed up all the super religious Jews who think all the Land is theirs cause god said so and they built on land that is to
be shared ! If people stay home and don’t vote and god forbid Biden looses you and I and every democratic Country and every thing civil in the world will be Gone forever and I’m
Not kidding it’s that serious nothing will exist as it was we will be a dictatorship run by a orange Clown who will distroy us all and not give a dam at all people Woman could die because he wants no reproductive rights medical treatment for anyone etc your Prime is guilty as hell as much as Trump
God help us all ‘