War Day #130. Rafah & Beyond

Tuesday, February 13

Everyone is now complaining that Israel is operating in Rafah, Southern Gaza.

* Egypt moved forces, including 40 armored personnel carriers, to Rafah, presumably to prevent an influx of Gazan immigrants rushing through the border. Egypt has threatened to break the peace treaty with Israel if it operates in Rafah. Egypt’s Sisi is likely worried that Hamas will hook up with al Qaeda and ISIS, already in Egypt, potentially destabilizing his rule.

* Hamas has warned that Israeli action in Rafah will “result in the explosion of the prisoner deal negotiations.”

* European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, always unsupportive, felt the need to mouth off on this: “They are going to evacuate? Where? To the moon?”

* The UN is warning of a humanitarian crisis. (Of course, one might say their credibility is low in the aftermath of UNRWA-gate, which revealed 10% of Gazan UNRWA employees as Hamas members.)

* And the US has made it very clear that Israel is pretty much out of rope, and needs to protect Rafah’s civilians, many displaced from northern Gaza, if it expects continued US support.

A few things:

* If all the Hamas infrastructure is hidden under civilian centers; if every day the Israeli army is finding rocket launchers under children’s daycares, hospitals, refugee centers, critical infrastructure, and UNRWA headquarters, as they are, then it is somewhat unreasonable for the US et al seek to expect Israel to refrain from hitting these ‘humanitarian’ locales.

* Israel originally evacuated Gazan civilians to Rafah for their protection: so that they could operate against Hamas in northern Gaza with fewer civilian losses. (You need to trust that they will do something similar again.)

* Now we’ve just rescued two hostages from Rafah, from the home of a Hamas-affiliated family.

Yes, that means what you think: Hamas moved (at least some, probably most of) the hostages to Rafah.

* It is also strongly suspected that Hamas leadership, including Yoyo Sinwar, is hiding in Rafah (though I’m guessing it’s equal odds that he is already out of Gaza entirely.)

* So the civilians in Rafah? Yes, they’re again being used as human shields. They’re again paying the price for Hamas actions. They’re again going to need to evacuate to be safe, so that Israel can attempt to rescue the remaining hostages and eliminate the Hamas leadership.

It may take several more months to finish in Rafah, because Israel’s hands are largely tied in their efforts to prevent civilian death. But they are poised to eliminate Hamas leadership, finish off Hamas key fighting forces, and recover any surviving hostages.

Everyone has jumped onto the “stop” bandwagon: Egypt, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, US, UK, EU, and the Netherlands.

But if you all tell Israel that you don’t want us to operate in Rafah - you are effectively saying you want Hamas to win the war and kill the remaining hostages.

That’s your prerogative to say. But please own what you are saying. You can’t equivocate your way out of it.

And please forgive us if we don’t agree.

Today’s Wall Street Journal notes: “Rafah is the last bastion of Hamas, and its militants are sheltering among civilians there, according to Israel. Hamas, which the U.S., EU and others have designated a terrorist organization, triggered the war with the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages.”

It is a good reminder for the world, that seems to have forgotten how this all started.

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